OLD KING COAL

NOT 'OLD KING COLE' of the childhood nursery rhyme:

In this posting, I am reviving earlier discussion of climate, global warming, and whether there is anything we might do about it. The focus is on coal and natural gas, and possible alternatives in our energy future, with implications for the exercise of democracy.

Both the US and Australia are very dependent on fossil fuels, notably coal and natural gas, for the production of electrical energy. As more vehicles become powered by electricity, the transport system (private cars, public transport, trains, trucking) will shift from its current petroleum base to electricity. Conceivably, during the day and especially at night, millions of vehicles will be plugged into the electrical grid for recharging. Unless this new load is balanced by a reduction in other areas of demand, such as lighting, heating and air conditioning, and the use of electronic devices, this will result in a rising demand for electrical power.

It will be many years before substantial power will come from 'soft' or renewable energy from wind, solar, waves and tides. A difficulty with such sources is that they are not constant. The wind does not always blow, for instance, and the sun goes down at night. The times when demand for electrical energy increases may not coincide with output from soft energy sources. Also, when this output is in excess of demand, it is difficult to store. In an electrical system generation and load must always be in an exact balance. This can achieved relatively easily when the generation is controllable. The increasing use of smart grids will add control to the demand side. A significant problem with soft energy generation is finding ways to store excess power as when generation exceeds load.

Several factors make coal king: It has very low cost (ignoring health health and environmental costs), it can guarantee a constant base supply, and it is relatively easy to light up a furnace to bring on extra power. In fact, the ability to respond reliably to peak demand puts a premium price on a power station's output and leads to a strong profit bottom line. Natural gas has some advantage over coal in that new power generation based on this fuel are cheaper and quicker to build, run cleaner in terms of nasty emissions, and can come on faster to meet peak loads. However, natural gas is more limited both in terms of supply and in long term reserves.

In a world with constantly increasing energy demand, emerging economies like China and India will likely look to coal. I have read that China is building coal-fired power stations at the rate of one per week. In the US, one per cent of atmospheric contaminants arrive from China.

The big problem with electrical power from fossil fuels is that loading our atmosphere with billions of tons of carbon dioxide each year may be accelerating global warming and perhaps will bring us to a "tipping point' beyond which no action of ours can claw us back. If we weigh the various cost-benefit ratios that arise from the often murky debate about global warming and its possible effects, the sensible choice must be to develop alternate energy bases in order to avoid global disasters. This would involve reducing and perhaps eventually replacing fossil fuels.

Is it time to dethrone King Coal? Kings have been overthrown in the past. But how?

Two clean-fuel possibilities that might replace coal are geothermal and nuclear. As to the first, not too far below the earth's surface are hot rocks that can be fractured to allow the passage of water from one point to another. Drilling down to these rocks uses technology developed in the oil and natural gas industries. Steam generated in this way can drive turbines to produce electrical power, as is the case at many places around the world.

Nuclear power generation is more controversial. How controversial depends on where one lives. Not very in France, a net exporter of electrical power to the rest of Europe, where nearly 75% of electricity is produced at nuclear plants. Very controversial in Australia, which is odd as this country has 30% of uranium ore reserves and Canada which has 40%. Especially odd when one considers that the Land Down-under is more dependent on coal, and has lots and lots of it, than the US. Somewhat controversial in the US, where there are some 59 nuclear power stations (about the same number as in France).

But what about Three Mile Island and Chernoble? The actual risk is very low compared with the tens of thousands who die or are made sick through coal station emissions. We humans are strange around risk. For instance, we do not hesitate to drive to the airport while thinking about possible plane crashes, despite that the former is thousands of times more dangerous. About 115 people die on the roads each day in the US, including some 30,000 teenage drivers each year.

James Hansen, in his book 'Storms of My Grandchildren', points out that modern fourth generation 'fast' nuclear reactors are a hundred times more efficient that older types, produce waste that is far less toxic and which lasts only two hundred years (compared with thousands of years), and is readily vitrified for safe storage. Moreover, such reactors can 'burn' all the toxic materials produced by older designs. With such reactors, there is fuel for a thousand years and possibly ten times longer longer.

These reactors can be built in the very near future. A project reactor was ready for assembly in the US but was 'axed' for political reasons by the Clinton administration in 1994. It is an interesting conundrum, is it not, that we are more afraid of the nuclear bugaboo than we are of possible termination of life on the planet, or at the very least, civilization as we know it through needless carbon emissions?

It is strange that so-called 'environmental' groups are the most politically and influential in the 'battle against nuclear'!

No political debate preceded adoption of coal and oil as the energy foundation of our present age. These were imposed on us by the captains of the industrial revolution and have occasioned much suffering and afflictions ever since. How different things could be now. Through the Internet, we can all follow scientific discussion and contribute to political debate. Or we can 'fiddle', as did those three in the old rhyme...

"...

Every fiddler had a fiddle, and a very fine fiddle had he,

Oh there is none so rare as can compare

With King Coal, and his fiddlers three!"

THE SKI TRIP

I APOLOGIZE; it is almost a month since that last posting. I had a good day or so in Montreal and then left on Saturday morning for Mont-Tremblant, driving the first thirty miles in snow varying from light to thick. The day became more pleasant the further north I drove and I arrived at the next Youth Hostel about lunch time.

Most of the group had already arrived and were off skiing the local trails. I soon met my room-mate, John. Originally from the UK, he now lives near Ottawa where he and his wife run a Bed and Breakfast. We elected to go to lunch rather than ski, despite that the day was fine and the groomed trails very nice. A most interesting, considerate, and entertaining fellow indeed.

Sunday was given over to local skiing and Monday found us getting ready to board the bus, checking our gear, packing our lunch, and cleaning up. The next five days we skied hut-to-hut under the competent supervision of our leaders, Cathy and Ed. What an adventure... getting to know eleven strangers, finding out who are the snorers, discovering a beautiful part of the Canadian wilderness, and much more! The others in the group were practiced Sierra Club trippers and we soon fell into a pleasant routine. Ed was also our cook and prepared really great meals.

Some might think the huts a little primitive (like having to use an outhouse) but were in fact well maintained, clean, and most comfortable.

We enjoyed light snow most days with the conditions underfoot soft and slightly wet. Ultimately, this led to my downfall (several) on the second to last day when my skis proved too narrow to manage the deep, soft snow. My final fall resulted in a badly bent knee and I decided to turn back to the hut after three kilometres, on the way discovering that another in the party had similar problems with the conditions. We got back to the hut in time to catch the snowmobile transporting our stuff to the next hut. My ride on the snowmobile was probably the most exciting part of the entire trip! So that was the end of my skiing but I was more than satisfied with the trip as my osteoarthritic knees had stood up to the conditions much better than I had anticipated. Now I look forward to some knee parts replacement a little later on this year.

On the way home, I visited with my friends Richard and Gina. Richard is a drinking buddy from our Portland days. Nowadays they have an association with the local Friends (Quaker) group and I was privileged to visit with this group. They are creating up a small settlement with a dozen families near Chatham.

It is ever a renewing experience to visit with Richard and his family and I was most interested to learn of their modified approach to diet and to excise (ever heard of the 'slow burn' exercise program?). It seems to be working...Richard has lost weight and looks totally trim and well-muscled while Gina, previously very slim, has put on some useful mass. I confess, having seen Richard work out at the local gym, I am a convert to the slow burn approach!

Since returning to Painted Post, I have concentrated on completing my research on partial knee replacement and am looking forward to meeting with the orthopaedic surgeon I have selected in mid-April.

This osteoarthritis in my knees has been developing for more than five years now and has been, at times, particularly debilitating. However, these episodes have passed and I have not been too much affected by it. Now the situation has changed (the fall while skiing may have ramped things up somewhat) and I really feel hemmed in by it. My first experience of a painful and chronic condition. Quite the antidote to my inherent arrogance and a test of my good humor.

I will comment on the knee replacement adventure from time to time as this is quite a story to tell, if you are interested in the process of finding a surgeon to get a new knee.

Sorry, no pictures this time...