AUSTRALIA AND SOCIALISM

AUSTRALIA DAY (January 26)

Europeans began to settle in New Holland (as Australia was then called) in 1788. Eleven ships carrying officers, troops, and convicts arrived on these shores and declared it a British colony. This became New South Wales. Some 40,000 to 60,000 years before, after a long journey by foot, their distant ancestors had already arrived, setting out from Africa, walking up through Asia Minor, across India and into the Burma Peninsula. From there they transformed themselves into sailors and island hopped down through the Indonesian Archipelago to New Guinea. From there some eventually strayed South and found the northern shores of the Island Continent Europeans would later call ‘New Holland’.

When the British (descended from another wave of wanderers from Africa into Europe after the last Ice Age) arrived, there were perhaps two million or so of the original settlers inhabiting this land. They did not take much notice of the new arrivals, apart from spearing some of the cattle for food and also a settler or two from time to time. Some were friendly to the newcomers but there was not a lot of traffic between the two groups. The British considered the ‘natives’ to be primitive and barely human. As the original inhabitants had not seemed to have established any sort of land ownership system, the new wave did not bother to set up treaties between the aboriginals and themselves.

Guns, germs, and steel (as Jared Diamond has phrased it) just about did for the Aboriginal people, who were quickly reduced to several hundred thousand and became virtual serfs to the Europeans. These folk had practiced ‘firestick’ farming for tens of thousands of years and had transformed the landscape and climate of this great and ancient southern land. They did not think that the land belonged to them in any sense but that they belonged to the land, their mother, and were part of it. They had not fallen into the dangerous dichotomy of ‘man and nature’. They were nature, along with everything else.

The newcomers, longing for the land they had been forced to leave, set about making it as much like England as they could. This included repeated attempts to introduce rabbits, hares, and foxes for hunting. Eventually they succeeded in these attempts. Twenty-four rabbits became the many millions that ruined much of the land and which, despite two attempts to wipe them out with viruses, appear to be making a dramatic comeback For a history of rabbits in Oz, see). By and large, the Europeans and now many others from Asia and other countries than England, have done pretty well. We call it ‘The Lucky Country’. Right now our economy looks in very good health, with employment at 95% and many industries, especially mining, finding it difficult to find sufficient workers, particularly skilled workers. Want to earn six figures? Come to Oz and drive a truck up in the Pilbera.

Although Australia Day has become quite an important day, it has not perhaps matched in significance ANZAC Day, celebrated on April 25. On this day, we remember our military defeat by the Turks in the Dardanelles in the early days of World War 1. This was quite a disaster and after a while we slunk off during the night, much to the disconcertment of the Turks the next morning. Aussies have been going off to other peoples wars for quite a long time, without having actually picked a fight on our own account. Our independent, almost larrikin attitudes have not endeared us to commanders of other armies, particularly the British Army (check out the film, Breaker Morant) However, we do a good job of soldiering. Moreover, the experience of combat has done much to foster and develop our sense of ‘mateship’ which we share with our cousins across the Tasman Sea, the New Zealanders (the NZ in ANZAC), our good mates the ‘Kiwis’.

In a ‘catch as catch can and the devil take the hindmost’ world, this spirit of supporting each other and taking the part of the underdog (looking after our mates), I suspect makes us appear ‘socialists’ to others. Mateship is very nearly androgynous but more pronounced in men. Anyway, ANZAC Day is a big event, with dawn services in every little town and big marches in the cities. The US Veterans Day has nothing on ANZAC Day. By the by, we also treat our returned soldiers pretty well, in terms of medical services.

An example of Aussie mateship in the offing is our response to the devastating floods across Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. The bill for these may rise to $20 billion, to fix it all up. Thousands of folk have lost everything in these floods, not to mention tragic and heartbreaking stories of loss of life, fortunately not nearly as high as it might have been. The Federal Government reckons it will have to come up with $5 billion quickly to get things going. The Prime Minister has just announced a short term levy on all taxpayers towards this goal. And note this well, please, she has proposed a CUTBACK in defence spending, as well as cutbacks in some other areas (hello, it seems we are not concerned to wage a war of terror in the name of national security). Does anyone begrudge this move? Not a soul…of course we will do all we can to help our mates who are in a bit of trouble.

As you can see, I love this country. But I am returning to the US on February 15th. There you go…I have said my piece in relation to Australia Day.

NEW YEAR WEATHER

THIS NEW YEAR WEATHER IS JUST PLAIN TERRIBLE. As I write, there is steady rain in Adelaide. Over my morning coffee, online I read of the second Winter storm in the NE USA, the atrocious weather in NW USA, and the horrific flooding in Queensland and New South Wales.

It is raining in Adelaide because the tropical weather inflow from the Coral Sea, that has been causing the huge floods covering most of Queensland has finally reached this area. The last time we experienced this weather pattern was in 1974 and was the cause of the worst flooding up to then. This flooding is far worse and is recognized now as the worst since the European settlement of Australia. La Nina, the mischievous sister to El Nino, is the culprit. This occurs when the sea temperature Northeast of Australia, in the Coral Sea, is abnormally high.

Like as not, you are more concerned with your own weather. However, you can access amazing videos of the Queensland floods on ABC News. Many of these videos have been taken by folk caught in the flooding, using their mobile phone cameras. As an aside, this is part of the emergent social networking phenomenon. The videos are astonishing. Seventy five percent of Queensland has been declared a disaster area, an area twice the size of the State of Texas. The flooding extends into adjoining northern New South Wales. Moreover, heavy rain associated with the weather pattern I am experiencing is also causing serious flooding in the State of Victoria.

Like the Mississippi River, which drains much of interior USA, the Darling/Murray River system drains a huge area of Australia, extending from the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range, the long backbone of the eastern seaboard. The Murray empties into the Southern Ocean some 70 miles South of Adelaide. For the last two decades, this river system has been dying due to droughts and abusive irrigation practices. Almost dead at year's end, the river is now reviving though the gigantic volumes of water transfusing it. As someone once quipped, its an ill flood that flows no one good.

Working in tandem, the terrible weather twins, El Nino and La Nina, have an enormous effect on the weather on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. They have but little effect on the weather East of the Rockies and in Northern Europe. As I mentioned in another place, abnormal snow coverage in the Siberian Autumn and on into Winter seems the best explanation of the terrible Winter storms that have afflicted Northeastern America and Northern Europe. One of my correspondents remarked that it looks as if the Russians have won the "Cold War" after all! If you look down on Earth from above the North Pole, by using Google Earth, you will see how vast an area is Siberia.

All three factors in the weather (the Terrible Twins and Fall Siberian snow cover) have a main cause...warming of the oceans. A huge network of ocean sensors, deployed over the last five years, indicate the the rate of warming of the oceans is accelerating. The ocean currents do most of the work of distributing the heating from the sun between the hot equator and the cold poles. The remainder is done by the atmosphere though jets streams and trade winds. The oceans constitute a huge heat sink and their temperature is more or less regulated by evaporation. Winds carry this water vapor to the land masses. As these currents of moist air rise over the land they release water by condensation causing rain or snow to fall, just where being dictated by the upper level jet streams.

Last year, and in other years, rather more snow than usual fell over Siberia. The cold air above the snow forms huge hump deflecting the northerly jet streams more South and causing the bleak conditions in Northern America and Europe. This effect has only recently been incorporated into climate models and has been shown to have excellent explanatory power. If the model is correct, expect unusually cold conditions in these areas during December to March every few years.

Well what about global warming? If the 'green house' effect of the rising carbon dioxide and methane levels in the atmosphere causes extra heating of the oceans, we must expect more extreme weather patterns. We are between Ice Ages so of course the climate is warming. All the previous Ice Ages have been separated, according to' climate archeologists', by warm periods most with weather patterns far more variable than our present warm period. In the rather short history of hominids, we have suffered several periods of widespread glaciation with devastating effects on us, two or so in our most recent history. Most, if not all, of these glaciated periods have been presaged by a swift rise in average global temperatures and then the world went very cold quite quickly.

Our ancestors had not the science to understand even a glimmer of the vast processes that governed their existence. We are just beginning to have some understanding and by the time all the members of the various juries interested in this have agreed on the science, most likely it will be to late to take effective actions.

Do I think that human actions add to the natural effect of interglacial warming. Absolutely...one cannot burn up millions of years of accumulated fossil carbon in one huge, relatively brief bonfire, releasing all that carbon into the atmosphere, without dangerously tinkering with natural processes we understand little as yet. At some point the natural negative feed back loops that keep earth's temperature relatively stable will be overcome by a riot of positive feedbacks that will unhinge the benign conditions we think imperturbable.

Am I pessimistic about our ability to avert possible disaster. You bet I am. The complex warp and weft of intertwining forces, political, industrial, scientific, the natural skepticism that that the cry of "wolf" is not just a bad joke, and the desire of the well-off nations to preserve their comfort will most likely weave a carpet of inaction leading to very difficult times for we humans and the unfortunate other species that did no more than make our world beautiful.

Simple, plain economics may be the only factor that may avert this but not without great troubles to many. When oil ran to $140 or so a barrel, diesel fuel became so expensive as to curtail mining operations. Following the disastrous BP/Horizon/Haliburton oil rig accident off Louisiana, getting new oil will be increasingly expensive. The rising consumption of fossil fuels in developing counties will not slow much and overall global consumption will continue to rise while production, at best, remains stable. Fossil fuel will become very expensive and the great industrial economies will inevitably slow. Historically, when coke became scarce coal took over. When oil was cheap, it took over from coal, setting up our present oil-based global economies. Natural gas looks good, for a short while, to take over from oil and coal to fuel the worlds slowing energy consumption in a carbon conscious world. Nuclear power will likely be the world's last energy resort.

With a lot of luck, most of the fossil fuel left in the earth may yet remain there but don't hold your breath waiting for this to happen.

WHAT TO DO WITH THE NEW YEAR?

ANOTHER SYDNEY T O HOBART PIC: Loki smashing its way (or being smashed away) somewhere in Bass Strait (the patch of water between The Big Island and The Little Island (Tasmania).

The race is now history, as with the retention of The Ashes by the English Cricket Team. So what to make of the year that is past?

Two experiences stand out for me. The first is a wonderful involvement in my two Adelaide grandchildren, Jennifer and David, learning to ride their bicycles. Never having done this before (I have no idea how two of my children learned to ride but my Adelaide daughter told me she taught herself after I had bought her bike), I was quite methodical about it (shades of ski instruction) and was right into things like Task Analysis, Movement Analysis, and the like. Despite all this, the two managed to learn. Now they are speed maniacs. However, the look of sheer terror turning quickly to sheer joy as the mysterious matter of balance materialized for them can never be forgotten. What a privilege!

The other has to be my 'tin' knees. I went to a lot of trouble to get this right, researching things like infection risk, hospitals with the best surgical outcomes, the best prosthesis for my life style and stage of life, and selection of the best qualified orthopaedic surgeon I could find. Then my lovely friend Uma looked after me so well! The solid reality about knee replacement is that, once the surgery has gone successfully, there is the long business of rehabilitation that rests entirely on one's own shoulders. Back in March, there were times when I carefully planned my parking spot at the supermarket so that I did not have to go far to the trolley station (they make wonderful walkers) and calculated the shortest route around the shelves. Now I am off, only thinking of the finer points of walking and not at all about the pain I once felt. So, I count this a big victory in 2010.

There is a lot to be said for recognizing accomplishment, in one's self as with others.

Of course, I am still in 'the eye of the needle' and there is a lot to be done on that account in 2011. Watch This Space, as the saying goes.

I do have one New Year's Resolution...not to make any NYRs (just kidding!!!) Really I do have one. That is to have some form or exercise before breakfast. Doing OK so far (only Day 2, of course).

There will be a lot to share in 2011. Have you heard of the Blue Zones research project by the National Geographic Society? Will oil hit the triple digits and if so, how will that affect our lives. And that is not all...just keep watching this space.

In the meantime, the quotidien of painting and tiling.

And above all...L'Chiem!