Sunday, August 24, 2008

MAINTAINING FOCUS

CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ADJUSTMENT is proving to be so interesting that I need to keep a clear focus. Let's stay focused on climate change and the interaction between climate and human activity.
Weather and climate change are not the same thing. Weather is day-to-day stuff while climate change is the stuff of decades through to millenia. The exception to this is violent weather that seems to occur over the several years involving a climate flip-flop from warmer-wetter to cooler-dryer, as the story from the ice core research seems to indicate (I hope you turn to those two books I have mentioned for the background to this pronouncement).
Relative to the period of the ice-ages (beginning some 2.5 million years back), human study of climate is startlingly brief. What caused the ice-age period is not clear; however, prior to this , the earth was considerably warmer. Scientific study of climate is less than 200 years in the making and has only made serious advances in the last 40 years. The average temperature of the earth has been warming these last 30,000 years. Back then, ice sheets covered 30% of the earth's surface whereas currrent coverage is only 10%.
Climate is the engine that transports heat from the equator towards the poles. We all know it is hotter at the equator and gets less so as we go toward the poles. Unless heat could be moved, it would be hotter at the equator and much colder at the poles than is the case. This work is shared between two abundant fluids; water forming the oceans and the gases that compose the atmosphere above the seas. The basic forces that move the air are convection and the Coriolis effect. Heating at the equator causes air to rise, move toward the poles, descend as it cools, rise again and so on, steadily moving heat as it does so. Land complicates this flow by getting in the way of the lower winds. With more land north of the equator, the effects of the lands on wind flow are somewhat different between the northern and southern hemispheres. Land also divides the sea into regional oceans. Changes in temperature and salinity cause currents to flow in these regional oceans. Land also causes the regional oceans to have different sea levels and to have differing salinity, in addition to different temperatures. Because these regional oceans are connected to each other, currents flow between them to even things up. In the nature of things, evening up cannot occur due to the sun persisting in heating the earth, so the whole climate heat engine just keeps on running.
We humans live on the land and, apart from wind (and ocean currents if you happen to be seriously involved with getting around between bits of land), are hardly aware of the climate apart from the micro-shifts we call the weather.
The average temperature of the earth's surface at any period depends on many inputs. When lots of ice and thick clouds abound, the earth tends to be cooler. The climate engine does not run as fast because more heat is reflected and less heat reaches the surface of the earth. When carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane concentrations increase in the atmosphere, heat is prevented from escaping by radiation causing the temperature to rise (the 'greenhouse' effect). During the ice ages the earth was cooler. In between ice ages, things warmed up. That the ice ages will occur can be predicted to some degree by variations in the path of the earth around the sun (causing it to be significantly nearer or further from the sun), oscillations in the angle of the earth's axis to the plane of its orbit, and by the temperature of the sun's surface. This was mathematically predicted before we had evidence of the ice ages.
Climate change causation is even more complicated than I make out and, even after the basic data were discovered, the development of useful models had to await the appearance of supercomputers to run the models that simulate climate change.
Although politicians make use of some results from science from time to time (Einstein's letter to FDR about the atom bomb and the likelihood of Hitler producing one early in WWII is one example), they seem nowadays to be more influenced by lobbying from powerful sectional interests. The rest of us have lost interest in science or, at worse, are skeptical about its supposed 'findings'. Until recently, scientific reports about climate change (if you disregard the occasional horror movie of episodes on Discovery Channel) got about as much regard as Noah may have received when he commenced building the Ark.
Well, this little foray into the science of climate and climate change is over for the moment. The next posting will seek to relate something of what has emerged about the great heat exchange engine (climate) and the effect of human activity.

CORRECTION

PRIMATES WALKING:
In my previous posting, I indicated that our evolutionary ancestors had been walking and using tools over the period of the last ice age (125,000 years). It seems walking has been going on, so far as can be inferred from the development of a heel that can support full body weight, at the beginning of the ice ages, some 2.5 million years ago! There is evidence of tool using from that time also. However, primate brains were much smaller then. At the beginning of the most recent ice age, hominid brains had increased 300% in size and the newer brain part, the cerebral cortex, had become much larger and elaborated.

Friday, August 22, 2008

CLIMATE and THE WEATHER

ONE OF YOU RECENTLY emailed a reply to a posting and included this comment: 'Watching the Weather Channel is now like watching a Hollywood disaster film...'
It is hard to tell, from the weather, just what is going on in the world. Part of the trouble with the weather is that it is so changeable and our recall of weather patterns (which vary in cycles longer than our lifespan) is imperfect. Unless, that is, unless you are a climate-oriented scientist who has been active in the profession over the last 20 years. Before that, we knew little about long term weather patterns.
This comment drove me back to two books I have read that bear on the climate and how the weather we experience fits into things. These are 'The Two Mile Time Machine' by Richard B Alley, published in 2000, and 'A Brain For All Seasons by William H Calvin, published in 2003. Richard Alley spends a his time helping dig up ice cores from the ice shelf in Greenland and studying what this can tell us about climate going back almost 250,000 years. William Calvin is a neurophysiolist, originally a physicist, who is interested in how climate change and the evolution of the brain and human intelligence might be connected.
250,000 years seems a long time and covers the span of two recent great ice ages, a good bit of the time that primates like ourselves have been walking more and more upright. It is also a time when hominid brains have been getting bigger. Modern humans have been around for 150,000 years, roughly the period of the most recent ice age. During this time we have developed tool use, tool making, language, agriculture, and finally industry. This intrigues William Calvin who wonders about how climate change has influenced increasing cleverness. I recommend these two very stimulating books to your reading.
The earth's climate has been warming these last 15,000 years, with a few recursions into cold periods about 13,000, 9,000, and 1,300 years ago when the climate flipped from warm and wet to cold and dry. These adverse periods made life extremely hard for our ancestors and lasted variously roughly five and fifteen centuries. Agriculture has only been around for about 8,000 years; before that we were all hunter-gatherers. Written history began about the same time and was well developed by the last cold period when we know that Europe became very cold and crops failed or were uncertain for a long time. Painters from this time depicted such scenes as folk skating on the canals in The Netherlands.
These ice cores (and sedimentary deposits in the lakes and the sea, as well as iceberg rock-rubbish dumped on the sea bottom) tell us that these changes from warm-wet to cold-dry happened very quickly (less than a decade). Rainfall shifted to higher latitudes leaving the deserts around the equator to expand. Weather in the mid-latitudes became more violent as winds became stronger. Maybe the weather is telling us something important!
Here is the paradox...global warming can lead relatively suddenly to catastrophic cold-dry periods when agriculture becomes harder and literally millions starve.
Lots more has to be discovered about how this 'flip flopping' comes about. It is sure to happen again in our future. Climate scientists seem now to understand that global climate change can be non-linear. At some point, gradual changes lead to sudden inversions. How does this relate to our modern focus on green house gases and global warming?
The significant 'green house' gases are water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide. We add quite a bit of the last gas to the atmosphere through burning fossil fuels. Keeping lots of cattle and hogs (especially if they are grain fed), not to overlook human activities like regular lawn mowing, puts plenty of methane into the air. Even we humans contribute methane (a couple of pints per day per person) and there are a lot of us contributing (oh, pooh)!
Here is the significant point. As increasing pressure pressure on the switch suddenly turns on the light or increasing pressure on the trigger leads to the firing of the gun so gradual warming of the atmosphere can lead to a sudden flip into cold dry conditions. This could well lead to widespread failure of agriculture and extensive famine conditions.
So, keep and eye on the weather and learn from the past...it has all happened before and not just once or twice.

Monday, August 11, 2008

IS THIS MY LAST WORD?

TWO OPINIONS IN NY TIMES this week could be of interest.
  1. Editorial, Energy Fictions (August 10), concluding paragraph: "Here is the underlying reality: A nation that uses one-quarter of the world’s oil while possessing less than 3 percent of its reserves cannot drill its way to happiness at the pump, much less self-sufficiency. The only plausible strategy is to cut consumption while embarking on a serious program of alternative fuels and energy sources. This is a point the honest candidate should be making at every turn." The point of this editorial..."A toxic combination of $4 gasoline, voter anxiety and presidential ambition is making it impossible for this country to have the grown-up conversation it needs about energy."
  2. Thomas L. Friedman, Flush With Energy: (Aug 10): He comments on his recent visit to Denmark where, since 1973 taxes have been applied to gasoline to raise the price to the equivalent of USD10 per gallon and applied these, along with carbon taxes, to the development of alternative energy. The result of this has been the transformation of a society that was almost completely dependent on foreign oil to one that is now energy sufficient. Friedman says, "What was the trick? To be sure, Denmark is much smaller than us and was lucky to discover some oil in the North Sea. But despite that, Danes imposed on themselves a set of gasoline taxes, CO2 taxes and building-and-appliance efficiency standards that allowed them to grow their economy — while barely growing their energy consumption — and gave birth to a Danish clean-power industry that is one of the most competitive in the world today. Denmark today gets nearly 20 percent of its electricity from wind. America? About 1 percent."
Personally, I would hate to pay $10 a gallon. It would surely change my driving habits. I believe that this sort of price will eventually be paid as world consumption of oil significantly outstrips production and reserves. Accustomed as we Americans are to amazingly abundant resources, living in the expectation that these are limitless and that somehow science and technology will produce a deus ex machina, a magical solution, that will return gasoline to (I wish) $3.00 a gallon. Is it really possible that we could get as smart as the Danes or that enough politicians will appear who are sage enough to grasp the nettle of our energy crisis? Could we really grow up and do so in time?

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

GOD BLESS THE MARKET, or

WHAT KIND OF PRESIDENT DO WE NEED?
Charles de Gaulle once remarked, "I have come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left to the politicians".
Both candidates for the US Presidency are having quite a bit to say about the cost of motor fuel and what should be done about it. Almost everyone in the US is of the view that gasoline costs too much. Naturally, we all like to buy a commodity as cheaply as possible. When I purchased gas back in 1987, while traveling in Ohio, I was amazed that I pumped gas into my friend's Honda for around 70 cents a gallon; that was about what it was costing per liter in Australia! Of course, in the UK, it was costing around twice that per liter.
In 1999, I thought it pretty good when I managed to buy gas for as little as 99 cents per gallon and got a little upset when it went up to $1.15.
Public Radio in the US runs a sage and thoroughly humorous Saturday morning show,
Car Talk, hosted by Tom and Ray Magliozzi ("Click and Clack"). I recommend that you listen to it from time to time. When I first began to listen to this show, back in 1987, one of them remarked that gasoline was so cheap it might as well be given away!
According to many economists, when demand for a product goes up, price will increase and lead to increased supply, resulting in a lower price. As we are beginning to notice, when supply cannot ramped up, all that happens is that price goes up. At a certain point, this affects demand. In the US, demand for gasoline has fallen almost 3% compared with a year ago. In terms of making an invaluable and essential commodity last longer, in the face of limited capacity, this is a desirable outcome.
When it comes to world supply of oil over a long enough period for alternate sources of energy to be developed, this is just what we need. For good measure, let's throw in the dangers of global warming.
As I remarked in the last posting, the present cost of fuel is producing some progress toward a saner construction of society. It is even having some effect on globalization (itself a freak result of overly cheap transportation costs) for which see the article in New York Times last Sunday,
Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization. When you consider that bunker fuel (for shipping) is the cheapest fraction of oil before bitumen, this is really news. Another bit of news is that even bitumen is becoming costly and sufficiently scarce to affect the maintenance of roads.
Actually, I am all for drilling to discover more oil and am glad that the ethanol-from-corn myth as the answer to foreign oil dependence has been debunked. I certainly hope that biofuels that do not compete with food supplies will become available as quickly as possible. None of this will lead to fuels that are cheaper than ought to be, in terms of preserving the supply of oil for the really amazing uses we have found for it.
Human society depends on energy and, luckily for us, there are abundant supplies of energy all about us that are being developed. These will not threaten our home, the planet Earth. Cheap oil can only get in the way of a truly energy rich society. We need and should demand for politicians who refuse to pander to the cry for cheap gasoline. However, according to an old saw, we get the politicians we deserve. So let's give some thought to the world we want for our grandchildren and their children, the kind of world we are bequeathing to them. Let's look for and listen for a politician who takes politics seriously.

Monday, July 28, 2008

WOODCHUCKS, MILEAGE, AND SOCIAL ENGINEERING

APROPOS of nothing much...I caught sight of my friendly woodchuck today, keeping to his allotted corner of the back garden. We have a visitor; a charming red cardinal. I think he may be somewhat north of their usual realm.
GAS MILEAGE: For those who think metrically, my 29 mpg translates to 7.9 litres per 100 kilometers.
SOCIAL ENGINEERING: I met my friend Walt in the library last week. Walt lives in what used to be the general store in a small town about 15 miles east of Corning. He comes down to shop, work out at the Y, perhaps catch a meal at the local senior citizens' center, and check out books and newspapers at our excellent library in Corning. We are of an age and like to discuss the changes overtaking our society. We agreed that we may be entering one of the more dramatic times of change and societal adjustment and that this will be an interesting decade, to say the least.
Here are some straws in the wind...
The proportion of Caucasians (whites) compared with African Americans is beginning to increase in many US cities; apparently, they are moving in from the suburbs.
Because US motorists are driving less miles as gas prices remain around $4 or more per gallon, the Federal Government is collecting less tax designated for the maintenance of roads and bridges. A quarter of a million bridges in the US have been determined to need crucial repairs and there may not be enough money to get the work done.
A recent Washington Post article (This Time It Is Different, Sunday 27 July) drew attention to unheralded events. One was the notice given by Valero Oil to its US refineries that it will reduce supplies of crude by 15%, necessary as the production of oil diminishes in Mexico. The other was the announcement by Tara Motors (India) that it plans to begin production of its mini-car (the Nano) later this year, hoping eventually to produce a million cars for Indians drivers each year. If this transpires it will boost exponentially India's consumption of motor fuel at a time when oil supplies worldwide are like to be beginning to diminish. Since demand is driving the rising cost of oil, this ought to be a 'wake up call' in respect to gas prices over the next decade.
Rising fuel costs will bring about a re-engineering of American society. Already folk are leaving the 'exburbs' and returning to the inner cities in order to reduce commute times and costs. Shopping mall parking lots seem less occupied; it may be that Amazon's recent increase in profits has to do with it being cheaper to purchase online than to drive to the mall.
Few of us, unless we have really read up on the history of the flight of Americans (and Australians) from the cities to the suburbs, understand that our culture (the large motor car, the large house in the distant suburb, the large centralized schools and their school bus fleets, cheap goods available from the large supermarkets with huge item-delivery miles from original site of production to point of sale, and the gargantuan food industry are all based on and made possible by cheap motor fuels and the huge influence of the motor manufacturing companies.
It looks as if we will be 'blessed' with interesting times as the price of energy continues to rise and we make what may be for many very painful changes. Hold on for the ride!

Thursday, July 24, 2008

JULY ROUND UP

HMMMM....ALMOST THREE WEEKS since my last post.
UPDATES:
The Woodchucks: I went to work on the garden shed, another lair for the woodchucks, using the same technique as for the window box. I left one small bolt hole pending the arrival of the one way excluder I had ordered (who wants to trap an animal under the garden shed?). I managed to get all this done before the onset of the amazingly humid, thunder stormy weather we have had for the last week or so. This leaves them one set of burrows in the corner of the rear garden. I have not seen any of my friends since so I conclude that I have deprived them of convenient bolt holes and they are now appearing in my neighbors' gardens.
The Garden: Apart from the regular mowing, I have now two reasonably sized tomato plants safe behind netting. A new compost heap warmly grows. My compost from last year has turned out well and has been used for some planting. Going to Australia in May was a tactical mistake in terms of gardening as I am well behind in what I might have achieved had I been working during the onset of Spring.
The Motor Scooter: We had a bit of a slip up getting my driving test done so we are a bit behind on that project. I ride it around the back yard and sometimes convince Uma to do the same. She is improving each time she ventures her hand at it. My test on on the last day of this month; after that, I will be able to supervise Uma on the road.
Fuel Economy: As a result of disciplined concentration each time I drive, I have managed to lift the overall consumption of my ageing Infiniti G20 to just over 29 mpg since my last check.
Local Scene: For the last three years or so Painted Post/Corning has been the focus of a complicated road works project, the construction of a new highway interchange. I shudder to think what this may have cost (but thank you, Hilary Clinton, for this bit of pork barreling) but now it is nearing an end. Uma and I have made bets on the date of the completion of the last components which will eliminate all the detours and inconvenience of the extensive road works just past the bottom of our street. It is just about all done and it will save quite a bit of fuel just to be able to go directly to downtown Corning. The purpose of the interchange is to facilitate access to Painted Post and Corning from off the main highways to Rochester and Jamestown to the north and Pittsburgh and Washington to the south. Of course, the roadworks have occasioned the opposite to the detriment of local businesses. Everyone will cheer, Hooray, when it is finally done.
Congratulations: to my friend Pete Libby who completed the 200 mile or so ride from Seattle to Portland in one day on July12...his second time to do it on one day. Pete, and two friends, and I did the ride last year. I left them , after 135 miles, to complete the ride in one day and can attest to the considerable feeling of accomplishment that results from the adventure. All this pales in comparison with the riders in the Tour de France, currently nearing completion. Those guys are supermen on bikes!