LEFT HAND, RIGHT HAND

OIL DEPENDENCE REFLECTS the central role of motor transport in the US culture. Much the same can be said for all the developed nations. Most oil used is consumed in the transport sector. The private use of motor cars, SUVs, and light trucks forms the great bulk of this consumption. Putting this another way, the cars and pickups we ordinary folk drive about constitute the main reason for our dependence on supplies from other countries. It also means there is a sharp disconnect between the energy used for transport and other energy use.

Very little oil is used to generate electrical power. Electrical power is generated from burning coal and natural gas or from heat generated in nuclear reactors. A small amount comes from wind and solar sources. Saving power by, say, fitting energy efficient light bulbs will do nothing to ease dependence of foreign oil.

In the main, electrical power stations were built to meet relatively local needs. Over time, to handle fluctuations in demand, local grids were connected via high voltage transmission lines that also came to serve small communities. The power these networks could deliver remained closely related to demand, with new generating plants only being constructed to match increasing demand. The tendency of demand to increase above capacity occasionally caused blackouts, as also did the inability for the networks to manage transmission 'accidents' arising from decrepitude from having grown 'like Topsy'.

Oil used for transport is the left hand of energy while the right hand is the energy used in our homes, large buildings, powering industry, street lighting, and information transmission. While we might learn to use private transport less or come to use more economical vehicles, the tendency has long been for demand for electrical power to increase. For example, living in ever larger houses has increased the demand for air conditioning. Despite that it is not difficult to design and build so that little energy is needed for heating or cooling, most houses are woefully inefficient at managing internal temperature. Modern electronic devices like wide screen TVs and sound systems are energy hogs, even when seemingly turned off, as they remain in standby state so they can come back on quickly. Our reliance on the Internet and the great Web search engines demand considerable electrical power (Google reputedly has over 850,000 servers scattered around the US).

Building new power stations is no longer the easy option. Coal is the most abundant energy source in the US, enough for hundreds of years into the future. The problem is that coal-powered stations are too 'dirty' in regard to climate changing emissions, and use too much water for cooling. Carbon capture from these stations is likely to raise costs as much as 30%. Natural gas powered stations are quicker to construct and cheaper to run while being relatively 'clean' to operate; however, the US is not rich in natural gas and is already an importer of this energy source. Coal can be converted to oil or to natural gas but this is a 'dirty' process as well as costly. Nuclear power is probably the preferred option but such stations take long to construct and the power produced is fairly expensive. In any event, the electrical grid must achieve greater capacity and efficiency before much more power can usefully be generated and transmitted. Consider that, over great distances, up to 80% of power is lost by radiation. Generally, we are on the cusp and it is more likely that power suppliers will make money by encouraging less use of energy than by supplying more energy. We are entering the age of 'smart grids'.

All this casts a new light on the notion that we can shift from oil to electricity in order to maintain our current level of private transport by cars, SUVs, and light trucks. Suppose our fairy god-mother waved her wand and tomorrow half the car population had been transformed into electrically powered vehicles. Elated, the lucky owners would do their 50 or 100 miles commute and then do an overnight recharge , sucking electricity off the grid. Ideally, we would become less dependent on oil imports from the Middle-East, freeing money for internal spending and thus boosting the economy. In reality, this could have a disastrous effect as it is unlikely the power grid could support this huge increase in load; especially in summer when air conditioning comes on line. The Pickens Plan proposes that we switch cars to natural gas while we build alternate energy sources like wind and solar power, and enlarge and modernize the national electricity grid, paving the way to alternate power for cars. The transition to electric cars is likely to be slow, taking perhaps a decade to advance electric cars to a majority. Hopefully, over this period, necessary work on the national grid will have been undertaken, means to store the intermittent flow of power from solar and wind sources will have been invented, and the ability to produce renewable power greatly enhanced.

Seems as if we have painted ourselves into quite a corner. Without doubt the longer term view is likely to see the cost of energy rising, since current coal-fired power generation is the cheapest means. If the cost of electrical power rises steeply, as we saw with the rise in the price of fuel, demand will abate. We will use less either because of rising cost or because we become energy smart. In a world of finite resources and amidst the threatening dangers of climate change, Can we have our cake and eat it? I suppose the smart folk will adjust their mode of living and the rest will be adjusted by market forces.

The floor is yours...what adjustments have you tried, heard of, and can recommend? I invite you to write them as comments and the more the merrier.