LIGHT RELIEF

Here is Coyote in the realization that the ground is no longer beneath him. In the cartoon, it is a long, looong, looooong way down to the hard ground.

I am not so concerned as some may be about the future of energy. Disregarding, for the moment, that oil is a critical component of our technological society, it was easier for the earth to make and store energy as coal than as oil. There is probably coal enough for hundreds of years to come. Making coal a relatively clean source of energy, in terms of global warming and pollution of the environment, will make it a costly source of energy. As Germany showed during World War II and so too South Africa during the oil embargo for its apartheid policies, it is possible to convert coal to oil.

I wonder... Am I am too much caught up by the prospect of the future in which scarce and costly oil may lead to possible global economic collapse? I am inclined to follow the argument of Pascal, the great French statistician used this to justify belief in God. Better to believe in God and be found out to be wrong, he reasoned, than not to believe and be found out to be wrong. Thus, it is better to expect a dim oil future and act on that belief than to do otherwise.

The current cheapness of oil (even at $100 a barrel) supports agriculture based on machines versus human energy by a factor of about one hundred; as well, it enables cheap transport to urban centers far from where food is produced. Our whole life style is based on this cheapness. What will happen when oil is more scarce and two to three times more expensive? If that ever happens, when will it happen? What is the best course of action for individuals? Will we humans learn to contain the consumption of oil and preserve it for essential uses (like supporting technology and communications)? If you bet we will not, what is the smartest course of action for those individuals who prefer to be on the side of caution?

WHAT ABOUT OIL, THEN?

As a boy, my favorite cartoon at the Saturday matinée was the adventures of Coyote and Roadrunner. If you know this series, you will remember that Coyote never did succeed in catching Roadrunner. One striking sequence is where Coyote pursues Roadrunner over a cliff. For some moments, Coyote is suspended in mid-air but does not begin to fall until he realizes the ground is no longer beneath him.
Could we be getting off the cliff with oil?
World oil production appears to have peaked during 2005. Several factors will continue to drive demand. One is the rise of middle classes in India and China who want to own cars, eat meat in increasing quantities, and own consumer goods that depend on the availability of oil. These folk want the good life that Americans, Western Europeans, Canadians, Japanese, and Australians have enjoyed for the past five decades. Based as that was on the ready and cheap availability of oil it is unlikely that the dreams of these new middle classes will transpire. Nor is it likely that we will be able to continue to live in this dream beyond a decade or so.
Oil is in almost everything.

PRICE OF A LOAF OF BREAD

Three weeks since my last post!!!
Happy New Year to you all.
Here in Painted Post it continues quite cold with occasional snow. I have to admit that the cold gets to one's soul and I am emerging (I hope) from the mid-Winter slow down. The local squirrels appear to be anticipating Spring, getting quite chummy with each other and chasing each other around from tree to tree.
My local groundhog still hibernates in his hole alongside the front of the house where he benefits from the heat. Groundhogs are strictly lone individuals and I hope that ours does not have a mate as groundhogs sometimes get together to breed during Winter and I would not like to see four or so new members of the groundhog community in our yard. I will keep a look out for him, in case he sees his shadow this weekend and decides to get busy. I have to make plans to manage his activities before I plant this year's garden bed.
What has this got to do with the price of a loaf of bread? you may well ask.

Well, very little as a matter of fact...just some thoughts having to do with garden planning.
My favorite loaf of bread comes from the bakery of our local Wegman's Store (a bit like Safeway if you live over on the west side). It is a seven grain loaf with perfect texture and crust. I eat a loaf per week and just dream for the when I can bake a loaf as good as this one. I was amazed to discover that the bread is prebaked in Rochester and can be turned out at the local store in just 14 minutes! How can they do that? I ask.
The point is that the price of this loaf went from $3.75 to $4.00 last week, up almost 7%!
I suspect that this price rise was due to two factors both related to oil. First, the cost of transporting basic materials for bread and then the cost of transport from the bakery in Rochester (some 90 miles away) to Corning. Secondly, the cost of ingredients driven by the increase in corn and other agricultural products.
As an example, farmers can now get twice the price for their corn because of the demand for ethanol production, compared with selling their corn for food. Consequently they have hugely increased corn plantings resulting is less production of other agricultural products and a general increase in the price of food. The immediate effect on oil importation is minuscule and may in fact increase foreign oil dependence.
Consider this, from an article by D.A. Pfeiffer, "Eating Fossil Fuels", in Wilderness Publications::

"In the Unites States, 400 gallons of oil equivalents are expended annually to feed each American (as of data provided in 1994) broken down as:
· 31% for the manufacture of inorganic fertilizer
· 19% for the operation of field machinery
· 16% for transportation
· 13% for irrigation
· 08% for raising livestock (not including livestock feed)
· 05% for crop drying
· 05% for pesticide production
· 08% miscellaneous"

Notice that this does not include the cost of feed lot production, based on corn that in turn is based on oil.

This is the view down along Chatfield Place as seen when I am standing about where I took the photo of the thermometer. Could be around 10 in the morning when I generally take a cup of tea and have a look at the day. Often as not, it is still dark when I return from my walk. We have about five inches of snow accumulation now.

You might think that I have to really rug up when I am out and about on my morning walk. Not so...due to the marvel of modern synthetic fabrics it have on just my ski pants, one light but snug shirt, Smartwool socks, and a light windproof shell jacket. If the snow is deep I may wear snow boots, otherwise good old waterproof hiking boots. Of course, a warm ski cap and thick gloves.

Usually, after ten minutes or so, I am feeling nicely warmed up and may even have a slight sweat on my brow. This morning walk has done wonders for my slightly arthritic knees so I like to make it a regular part of my day.

However, this morning, Thursday 3rd of January 2008, I ducked it!

I admit it...this morning I chickened out on my morning walk

Take a look at the outside thermometer; that's right, just about 5 deg F. The weather.com forecast had the temperature pegged at 8 deg and a wind of 10 mph, with a resultant chill factor of - 3 deg.

Yesterday the chill factor was about 10 deg higher and I do admit to feeling a tad cold out on the walk then. I walk about two miles, most of it in rural-like surroundings, going down with Uma to the Walmart parking area at the bottom of Chatfield Place then setting out on a somewhat circuitous route. Some mornings I come across the local deer herd; there are seven in the group so far as I can tell although it is not often that one sees them all together.

They have a run that goes from the game reserve up on the hill down through timbered areas keeping mainly to treed areas. You have to look out for them where they are likely to cross the road between two signs that indicate deer crossing. How do they know where to cross, I wonder?