Monday, January 28, 2008

WHAT ABOUT OIL, THEN?

As a boy, my favorite cartoon at the Saturday matinée was the adventures of Coyote and Roadrunner. If you know this series, you will remember that Coyote never did succeed in catching Roadrunner. One striking sequence is where Coyote pursues Roadrunner over a cliff. For some moments, Coyote is suspended in mid-air but does not begin to fall until he realizes the ground is no longer beneath him.
Could we be getting off the cliff with oil?
World oil production appears to have peaked during 2005. Several factors will continue to drive demand. One is the rise of middle classes in India and China who want to own cars, eat meat in increasing quantities, and own consumer goods that depend on the availability of oil. These folk want the good life that Americans, Western Europeans, Canadians, Japanese, and Australians have enjoyed for the past five decades. Based as that was on the ready and cheap availability of oil it is unlikely that the dreams of these new middle classes will transpire. Nor is it likely that we will be able to continue to live in this dream beyond a decade or so.
Oil is in almost everything.

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