Monday, January 28, 2008

LIGHT RELIEF


Here is Coyote in the realization that the ground is no longer beneath him. In the cartoon, it is a long, looong, looooong way down to the hard ground.

I am not so concerned as some may be about the future of energy. Disregarding, for the moment, that oil is a critical component of our technological society, it was easier for the earth to make and store energy as coal than as oil. There is probably coal enough for hundreds of years to come. Making coal a relatively clean source of energy, in terms of global warming and pollution of the environment, will make it a costly source of energy. As Germany showed during World War II and so too South Africa during the oil embargo for its apartheid policies, it is possible to convert coal to oil.

I wonder... Am I am too much caught up by the prospect of the future in which scarce and costly oil may lead to possible global economic collapse? I am inclined to follow the argument of Pascal, the great French statistician used this to justify belief in God. Better to believe in God and be found out to be wrong, he reasoned, than not to believe and be found out to be wrong. Thus, it is better to expect a dim oil future and act on that belief than to do otherwise.

The current cheapness of oil (even at $100 a barrel) supports agriculture based on machines versus human energy by a factor of about one hundred; as well, it enables cheap transport to urban centers far from where food is produced. Our whole life style is based on this cheapness. What will happen when oil is more scarce and two to three times more expensive? If that ever happens, when will it happen? What is the best course of action for individuals? Will we humans learn to contain the consumption of oil and preserve it for essential uses (like supporting technology and communications)? If you bet we will not, what is the smartest course of action for those individuals who prefer to be on the side of caution?
Posted by Picasa

No comments: