THE TAIL END OF ENERGY...

I THINK I AM ABOUT DONE with the energy dilemmas...do I hear a collective sigh of relief?

Now we know that most oil is used by folk like you and me who like to drive cars and 'light trucks'. The rest goes to the transport of goods, mostly to trucking and rail companies. At one time I thought that shifting from trucking to rail transport would be a smart move, since the efficiency of rail transport is about six times better than trucking. Unfortunately, it seems that the rail companies are not up to carrying more goods since they have not increased rolling stock. One can hardly blame them as too much capital investment that is not matched to increasing the volume of business could only reduce profits. Rail has not been able to compete with trucking so long as fuel has remained relatively low cost, nor can rail deliver door to door.

We face several dilemmas.

Under the force of the recession, transport of goods has been significantly diminished while our use of cars and trucks has remained at a lowered level. Consequently, oil reserves have tended to rise as world demand for oil has continued at a reduced level, keeping costs around $50 per barrel. An example of the effect of this is that gasoline prices are not expected to rise above $3 per gallon right through to the end of this year. It looks as if I am going to lose a side-bet that gas would cost $9 per gallon by November! This may lead to a tendency for new car buyers to return to purchasing 'gas-guzzlers'. In the face of this, at least some economists are proposing lifting the fuel tax to curb demand and increase funding for infrastructure improvement. However, drivers are unlikely to welcome this suggestion!

On the home front, natural gas prices are expected to fall through this year and over winter (here in the Northern Hemisphere). This is because the high price of natural gas sparked a frenzy of drilling, helped along by new techniques in extracting gas, so that supply has significantly increased. This will also lower the price of electricity to the degree that natural gas is used to produce electrical power. This likely will lower homeowners' incentive to effect economies, especially where these require considerable capital outlay. Likewise, the lower cost of energy is adversely affecting investment in alternative energy from wind and sun.

We seem to be caught in the 'energy doldrums'. The most likely energy enhancements will consist of picking the 'lowest fruit'; increasing power output will fall to upgrading nuclear power plants and 'decoupling' profits from power production. That will see the power suppliers encouraging lower power consumption through 'smart grids' (like sending you a message about when to run your air conditioner in summer heat), and increasing your use of power when it is plentiful and cheap (like turning on your water heater at night). To a degree, power producers will hold off, waiting to see how the wind of public policy will blow.

I think we can expect public policy to focus on infrastructure improvements and encouraging power companies to reduce consumption. Pushing alternative energy will be tricky so long as conventional power remains relatively cheap; long term, we must find a way to greatly increase the former and to store energy from these sources to make it available as needed.

As for you and me, likely we will hold off too.

Retreating to the present, I am once more back in the garden. Prior to Passover/Easter, we enjoyed the 'Springing Grass' New Moon and can expect some frosts still through to mid-May. But...things are warming up and all around the trees and shrubs are preparing to bust forth. I have joined a Master Gardner course on Tuesdays at the county center (an extension course with Cornell University, which holds the NY State Land Grant) and am finding out all about gardening in this part of the world. We took out some of the dead trees at the end of the yard and the tree fellers allowed me to use their massive chipper to get rid of quite a deal of cuttings. I now have a pile of chippings to use around the garden and some of the logs from the old trees. This enabled me to clear up a lot of leaf material and start a new compost heap.

I remain a compost enthusiast and have learned a great deal about this ancient art. My new heap is 4' x 4' (about a foot each way bigger) to retain composting heat better. A good bit of last year's product is now laid out in a new garden bed waiting to be dug in. The mower has a new spark plug and the blades are newly sharpened. I am in the process of mapping the garden so as to plan it's development, including a section for woodland environment. Heigh Ho, Heigh Ho...it's off to work we go!

How wonderful it is to spend time in the warming, sunny back yard! I have even been out cycling about a dozen times as the world is warming.